Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Juan Manuel CerundoloRosario CH Semi-final

Rosario CH · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 February 2026
clay
#45ATP
1790ELO
1762Clay ELO
$752kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-5 6-1
Cerundolo J.
Ugo Carabelli C.
762
Cerundolo J.
510

Camilo Ugo Carabelli defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7-5 6-1 in the Rosario CH semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Juan Manuel Cerundolo came in ranked #45, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Camilo Ugo Carabelli claimed a first win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Camilo Ugo Carabelli came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 6–1.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-26SantiagoQ1clayJuan Manuel Cerundolo6-1 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Ugo Carabelli C.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Cerundolo J.

Cerundolo J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Serve advantage — Cerundolo J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Ugo Carabelli C.Cerundolo J.
24
Serve
19
36
Return
49

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.8
4.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
85
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
82
Break points won·Clear edge
62
80
Deciding sets·Even
96
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8Clay Elo 1741
Surface ELO
4.2+21 Clay Elo edge
5.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1790
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.4
Surface form
6.3
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
8.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
4.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
98

Ugo Carabelli C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Cerundolo J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast