Pablo Carreno Busta vs Miomir KecmanovicMontpellier Round of 32

Montpellier · ATP · Round of 32
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 2 February 2026
hard
#50ATP
1768ELO
1709Hard ELO
$756kYTD
$9.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWWWW
Carreno Busta P.
4-6 6-3 7-6
Kecmanovic M.
Carreno Busta P.
46772
Kecmanovic M.
63641

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Miomir Kecmanovic 4-6 6-3 7-6 in the Montpellier round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Miomir Kecmanovic came in ranked #50, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Pablo Carreno Busta claimed a first win over Miomir Kecmanovic in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-10-17NaplesQFhardMiomir Kecmanovic7-5 6-2
2022-08-15Cincinnati MastersR64hardMiomir Kecmanovic1-6 7-5 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kecmanovic M.

Kecmanovic M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Kecmanovic M.
21
Serve
34
44
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
5.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.4
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
66
Break points saved·Even
97
98
Break points won·Slight edge
61
67
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
56
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+35 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1709
5.5Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1768
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
2.9
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
7.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
0.0
Prev. match
2.0
5.5
Country comfort
4.7
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
94

Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Kecmanovic M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
13°CDrizzle
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 82%