Mitchell Krueger vs Toby Samuel — San Diego CH Round of 16

San Diego CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Mitchell Krueger
USA
Mitchell Krueger
#349ATP
1461ELO
1436Hard ELO
32 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 27 January 2026
hard
GBR
Toby Samuel
#123ATP
1745ELO
1729Hard ELO
$175kYTD
$290kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLLWW
Krueger M.
6-4 6-4
Samuel T.
Krueger M.
662
Samuel T.
440

Mitchell Krueger defeated Toby Samuel 6-4 6-4 in the San Diego CH round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Toby Samuel came in ranked #123.

Key context

  • Match story: Mitchell Krueger edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Krueger M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Samuel T.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Krueger M.

Serve advantage — Samuel T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Krueger M.Samuel T.
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
56%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.5
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Krueger M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Samuel T.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 22 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
1.9Hard Elo 1436
Surface ELO
8.1+293 Hard Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 1745
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.3
Surface form
10.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Krueger M.Samuel T.
Freshness·Slight edge
99
92

Krueger M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Samuel T.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Svajda Z.[4]
Korda S.[1]
6-47-65
Semi-finals
Svajda Z.[4]
Shimabukuro S.[5]
6-46-1
Korda S.[1]
Kypson P.[3]
7-646-2
Quarter-finals
Korda S.[1]
Draxl L.[6]
7-646-4
Kypson P.[3]
Smith C.[7]
7-656-0
Svajda Z.[4]
Krueger M.
6-32-66-2
Shimabukuro S.[5]
Hijikata R.[2]
6-46-4
R16
Korda S.[1]
Ilagan A.
6-24-66-3
Draxl L.[6]
Svajda T.
6-36-4
Kypson P.[3]
Johns G.
7-646-2
Smith C.[7]
Bicknell B.
5-77-636-1
Svajda Z.[4]
Smith K.
7-626-4
Shimabukuro S.[5]
Fenty A.
6-41-67-62
Hijikata R.[2]
Tomic B.
3-66-46-3
Krueger M.
Samuel T.
6-46-4
R32
Johns G.
Poling K.
6-27-65
Bicknell B.
Rybakov A.
6-47-5
Smith C.[7]
Langmo C.
6-36-3
Korda S.[1]
Milavsky D.
6-47-5
Ilagan A.
Lechno Wasiutynski F.
6-17-5
Svajda T.
Braswell M.
6-26-2
Draxl L.[6]
Cassone M.
6-26-2
Kypson P.[3]
Zink T.
7-656-1
Samuel T.
Boyer T.[8]
6-35-76-4
Shimabukuro S.[5]
Kozlov S.
6-24-67-65
Krueger M.
Stebe C.
6-16-1
Smith K.
Perot R.
6-37-66
Svajda Z.[4]
Zhu E.
6-26-4
Fenty A.
Artnak B.
6-27-5
Tomic B.
Corwin F.
7-666-3
Hijikata R.[2]
Dostanic S.
2-66-36-2