Alex Molcan vs Sho Shimabukuro — Australian Open Qualifying Round 1

Australian Open · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
Alex Molcan
SVK
Alex Molcan
#101ATP
1742ELO
1653Hard ELO
$295kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 19 January 2026
hard
Sho Shimabukuro
JPN
Sho Shimabukuro
#90ATP
1672ELO
1606Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
Molcan A.
6-4 4-6 6-3
Shimabukuro S.
Molcan A.
6462
Shimabukuro S.
4631

Alex Molcan defeated Sho Shimabukuro 6-4 4-6 6-3 in the Australian Open qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sho Shimabukuro came in ranked #90.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex Molcan closed it out in three sets, 6–4 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Molcan A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Shimabukuro S.

Shimabukuro S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Molcan A.

Serve advantage — Molcan A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Molcan A.Shimabukuro S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.3
6.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Molcan A.Shimabukuro S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
79
42
Break points saved·Even
90
88
Break points won·Dominant
61
31
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
50
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Molcan A.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Shimabukuro S.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+46 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1606
6.5Overall Elo 1742
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1672
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.0
Surface form
7.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.6
Minutes 14d
7.7
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Molcan A.Shimabukuro S.
Freshness·Even
90
94

Molcan A.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Shimabukuro S.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 28%
Q3
Zheng M.
Klein L.[28]
4-66-37-610
Maestrelli F.[24]
Lajovic D.[13]
4-66-46-3
Ymer E.
Wong C.
7-644-66-3
Budkov Kjaer N.[23]
Herbert P.
6-26-3
Jodar R.
Van Assche L.
6-30-66-1
Damm M.
Bailly G.
7-57-5
Gea A.
Vallejo A.[30]
6-26-2
Wu Y.
Boyer T.
6-36-2
Sakamoto R.
Zeppieri G.
6-26-2
Sweeny D.
Travaglia S.
7-657-63
Svajda Z.[29]
Coppejans K.
7-656-2
Faria J.
Trungelliti M.[18]
7-656-3
Kubler J.
Blockx A.[7]
3-66-31-0
Fery A.
Prizmic D.[14]
6-46-1
Basavareddy N.
Loffhagen G.
5-76-46-4
Draxl L.[20]
Mcdonald M.[6]
3-67-626-2
Q2
Sakamoto R.
Smith C.[32]
6-46-4
Ymer E.
Moller E.[9]
4-66-47-5
Van Assche L.
Glinka D.
6-36-0
Sweeny D.
Kym J.
6-46-4
Draxl L.[20]
Sachko V.
6-35-77-67
Coppejans K.
Riedi L.
3-66-36-4
Wong C.
Llamas Ruiz P.
7-676-0
Prizmic D.[14]
Heide G.
7-56-2
Boyer T.
Passaro F.[27]
6-746-46-2
Trungelliti M.[18]
Rocha H.
7-54-66-3
Budkov Kjaer N.[23]
Mccabe J.
4-66-37-66
Zheng M.
Barrios Vera T.[4]
6-46-756-2
Svajda Z.[29]
Rodionov J.
6-16-4
Zeppieri G.
Holt B.[5]
6-747-56-4
Maestrelli F.[24]
Seyboth Wild T.
7-626-4
Basavareddy N.
Ofner S.[19]
4-66-47-611
Vallejo A.[30]
Cina F.
4-66-26-3
Fery A.
Tomic B.
6-46-2
Bailly G.
Carballes Baena R.[16]
7-646-736-2
Damm M.
Droguet T.
6-46-3
Gea A.
Burruchaga R.[2]
6-26-3
Blockx A.[7]
Molcan A.
6-16-1
Wu Y.
Mejia N.
6-46-4
Faria J.
Hassan B.
6-36-4
Mcdonald M.[6]
Grenier H.
7-646-1
Kubler J.
Gaubas V.[17]
7-56-2
Loffhagen G.
Nishioka Y.[8]
6-33-1
Herbert P.
Bueno G.
7-56-2
Lajovic D.[13]
Cassone M.
7-56-3
Jodar R.
Rodesch C.
7-6106-3
Klein L.[28]
Merida Aguilar D.
6-36-726-4
Travaglia S.
Landaluce M.
4-66-16-4
Q1
Basavareddy N.
Galarneau A.
6-46-2
Droguet T.
Jarry N.[21]
6-46-3
Boyer T.
Barrena A.
6-26-746-2
Hassan B.
Dodig M.
5-76-36-2
Ofner S.[19]
Holmgren A.
6-46-4
Svajda Z.[29]
Habib H.
6-16-3
Wong C.
Blanchet U.[31]
6-37-66
Gaubas V.[17]
Moreno De Alboran N.
7-56-3
Cassone M.
Hsu Y.
3-66-36-4
Molcan A.
Shimabukuro S.
6-44-66-3
Prizmic D.[14]
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Budkov Kjaer N.[23]
Watanuki Y.
6-757-56-4
Jodar R.
Tu L.
6-26-1
Lajovic D.[13]
Diaz Acosta F.
7-635-77-63
Loffhagen G.
Engel J.
7-647-62
Mccabe J.
Marinkov P.
6-27-65
Passaro F.[27]
Lajal M.
7-646-4
Burruchaga R.[2]
Peniston R.
6-16-1
Coppejans K.
Jasika O.
7-626-0
Grenier H.
Galan D.
7-691-0
Draxl L.[20]
Bouzige M.
7-636-3
Glinka D.
Tabur C.
5-76-36-4
Rocha H.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-26-4
Rodesch C.
Harris B.[15]
6-36-4
Klein L.[28]
Piros Z.
6-46-4
Gea A.
Kolar Z.
6-26-3
Seyboth Wild T.
Guillen Meza A.
7-56-3
Damm M.
Onclin G.
6-33-66-4
Vallejo A.[30]
Pacheco Mendez R.
6-16-2
Zeppieri G.
Added D.
6-36-3
Riedi L.
Choinski J.[11]
6-36-4
Rodionov J.
Ficovich J.
7-56-3
Mcdonald M.[6]
Popko D.
6-746-47-5
Sweeny D.
Pellegrino A.[26]
6-24-66-3
Blockx A.[7]
Cecchinato M.
6-36-4
Kym J.
Prado Angelo J.
6-36-0
Van Assche L.
Echargui M.[22]
6-46-4
Landaluce M.
Tseng C.[10]
7-56-3
Sachko V.
Durasovic V.
6-37-61
Moller E.[9]
Polmans M.
6-47-66
Sakamoto R.
Evans D.
6-16-2
Zheng M.
Hewitt C.
6-36-3
Llamas Ruiz P.
Bernet H.
3-66-37-63
Trungelliti M.[18]
Sekulic P.
6-21-66-1
Barrios Vera T.[4]
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-27-66
Holt B.[5]
Neumayer L.
4-66-26-3
Wu Y.
Krueger M.
7-56-4
Cina F.
Harris L.
6-46-746-3
Ymer E.
Bolt A.
7-647-65
Herbert P.
Den Ouden G.
3-66-36-2
Smith C.[32]
Pavlovic L.
7-646-1
Faria J.
Mikrut L.
7-627-5
Carballes Baena R.[16]
Bouquier A.
6-26-2
Fery A.
Winter E.
6-26-4
Travaglia S.
Ellis B.
6-34-66-1
Merida Aguilar D.
Crawford O.
6-32-66-3
Kubler J.
Mayot H.
6-36-4
Mejia N.
Virtanen O.[12]
6-33-66-4
Nishioka Y.[8]
Fatic N.
6-16-2
Bailly G.
Pinnington Jones J.
6-46-4
Bueno G.
Basilashvili N.[3]
6-17-65
Maestrelli F.[24]
Giustino L.
7-646-1
Heide G.
Clarke J.
6-36-3
Tomic B.
Dellien H.[25]
6-36-3