Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Australian Open Qualifying Round 2

Australian Open · ATP · Qualifying Round 2
BEL
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
#210ATP
1476ELO
1457Hard ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 19 January 2026
hard
Roberto Carballes Baena
ESP16
Roberto Carballes Baena
#163ATP
1632ELO
1592Hard ELO
$188kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Bailly G.
7-6 6-7 6-2
Carballes Baena R.
Bailly G.
776362
Carballes Baena R.
647721

Gilles Arnaud Bailly defeated Roberto Carballes Baena 7-6 6-7 6-2 in the Australian Open qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Roberto Carballes Baena came in ranked #163, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Bailly G.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Carballes Baena R.

Carballes Baena R.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Bailly G.

Serve advantage — Carballes Baena R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Bailly G.Carballes Baena R.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.6
4.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.2
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bailly G.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Carballes Baena R.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1457
Surface ELO
6.5+135 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1476
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1632
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
4.3
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.8
Minutes 14d
7.2
4.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bailly G.Carballes Baena R.
Freshness·Dominant
70
100

Bailly G.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 28%
Q3
Zheng M.
Klein L.[28]
4-66-37-610
Maestrelli F.[24]
Lajovic D.[13]
4-66-46-3
Ymer E.
Wong C.
7-644-66-3
Budkov Kjaer N.[23]
Herbert P.
6-26-3
Jodar R.
Van Assche L.
6-30-66-1
Damm M.
Bailly G.
7-57-5
Gea A.
Vallejo A.[30]
6-26-2
Wu Y.
Boyer T.
6-36-2
Sakamoto R.
Zeppieri G.
6-26-2
Sweeny D.
Travaglia S.
7-657-63
Svajda Z.[29]
Coppejans K.
7-656-2
Faria J.
Trungelliti M.[18]
7-656-3
Kubler J.
Blockx A.[7]
3-66-31-0
Fery A.
Prizmic D.[14]
6-46-1
Basavareddy N.
Loffhagen G.
5-76-46-4
Draxl L.[20]
Mcdonald M.[6]
3-67-626-2
Q2
Sakamoto R.
Smith C.[32]
6-46-4
Ymer E.
Moller E.[9]
4-66-47-5
Van Assche L.
Glinka D.
6-36-0
Sweeny D.
Kym J.
6-46-4
Draxl L.[20]
Sachko V.
6-35-77-67
Coppejans K.
Riedi L.
3-66-36-4
Wong C.
Llamas Ruiz P.
7-676-0
Prizmic D.[14]
Heide G.
7-56-2
Boyer T.
Passaro F.[27]
6-746-46-2
Trungelliti M.[18]
Rocha H.
7-54-66-3
Budkov Kjaer N.[23]
Mccabe J.
4-66-37-66
Zheng M.
Barrios Vera T.[4]
6-46-756-2
Svajda Z.[29]
Rodionov J.
6-16-4
Zeppieri G.
Holt B.[5]
6-747-56-4
Maestrelli F.[24]
Seyboth Wild T.
7-626-4
Basavareddy N.
Ofner S.[19]
4-66-47-611
Vallejo A.[30]
Cina F.
4-66-26-3
Fery A.
Tomic B.
6-46-2
Bailly G.
Carballes Baena R.[16]
7-646-736-2
Damm M.
Droguet T.
6-46-3
Gea A.
Burruchaga R.[2]
6-26-3
Blockx A.[7]
Molcan A.
6-16-1
Wu Y.
Mejia N.
6-46-4
Faria J.
Hassan B.
6-36-4
Mcdonald M.[6]
Grenier H.
7-646-1
Kubler J.
Gaubas V.[17]
7-56-2
Loffhagen G.
Nishioka Y.[8]
6-33-1
Herbert P.
Bueno G.
7-56-2
Lajovic D.[13]
Cassone M.
7-56-3
Jodar R.
Rodesch C.
7-6106-3
Klein L.[28]
Merida Aguilar D.
6-36-726-4
Travaglia S.
Landaluce M.
4-66-16-4
Q1
Basavareddy N.
Galarneau A.
6-46-2
Droguet T.
Jarry N.[21]
6-46-3
Boyer T.
Barrena A.
6-26-746-2
Hassan B.
Dodig M.
5-76-36-2
Ofner S.[19]
Holmgren A.
6-46-4
Svajda Z.[29]
Habib H.
6-16-3
Wong C.
Blanchet U.[31]
6-37-66
Gaubas V.[17]
Moreno De Alboran N.
7-56-3
Cassone M.
Hsu Y.
3-66-36-4
Molcan A.
Shimabukuro S.
6-44-66-3
Prizmic D.[14]
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Budkov Kjaer N.[23]
Watanuki Y.
6-757-56-4
Jodar R.
Tu L.
6-26-1
Lajovic D.[13]
Diaz Acosta F.
7-635-77-63
Loffhagen G.
Engel J.
7-647-62
Mccabe J.
Marinkov P.
6-27-65
Passaro F.[27]
Lajal M.
7-646-4
Burruchaga R.[2]
Peniston R.
6-16-1
Coppejans K.
Jasika O.
7-626-0
Grenier H.
Galan D.
7-691-0
Draxl L.[20]
Bouzige M.
7-636-3
Glinka D.
Tabur C.
5-76-36-4
Rocha H.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-26-4
Rodesch C.
Harris B.[15]
6-36-4
Klein L.[28]
Piros Z.
6-46-4
Gea A.
Kolar Z.
6-26-3
Seyboth Wild T.
Guillen Meza A.
7-56-3
Damm M.
Onclin G.
6-33-66-4
Vallejo A.[30]
Pacheco Mendez R.
6-16-2
Zeppieri G.
Added D.
6-36-3
Riedi L.
Choinski J.[11]
6-36-4
Rodionov J.
Ficovich J.
7-56-3
Mcdonald M.[6]
Popko D.
6-746-47-5
Sweeny D.
Pellegrino A.[26]
6-24-66-3
Blockx A.[7]
Cecchinato M.
6-36-4
Kym J.
Prado Angelo J.
6-36-0
Van Assche L.
Echargui M.[22]
6-46-4
Landaluce M.
Tseng C.[10]
7-56-3
Sachko V.
Durasovic V.
6-37-61
Moller E.[9]
Polmans M.
6-47-66
Sakamoto R.
Evans D.
6-16-2
Zheng M.
Hewitt C.
6-36-3
Llamas Ruiz P.
Bernet H.
3-66-37-63
Trungelliti M.[18]
Sekulic P.
6-21-66-1
Barrios Vera T.[4]
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-27-66
Holt B.[5]
Neumayer L.
4-66-26-3
Wu Y.
Krueger M.
7-56-4
Cina F.
Harris L.
6-46-746-3
Ymer E.
Bolt A.
7-647-65
Herbert P.
Den Ouden G.
3-66-36-2
Smith C.[32]
Pavlovic L.
7-646-1
Faria J.
Mikrut L.
7-627-5
Carballes Baena R.[16]
Bouquier A.
6-26-2
Fery A.
Winter E.
6-26-4
Travaglia S.
Ellis B.
6-34-66-1
Merida Aguilar D.
Crawford O.
6-32-66-3
Kubler J.
Mayot H.
6-36-4
Mejia N.
Virtanen O.[12]
6-33-66-4
Nishioka Y.[8]
Fatic N.
6-16-2
Bailly G.
Pinnington Jones J.
6-46-4
Bueno G.
Basilashvili N.[3]
6-17-65
Maestrelli F.[24]
Giustino L.
7-646-1
Heide G.
Clarke J.
6-36-3
Tomic B.
Dellien H.[25]
6-36-3