Reilly Opelka vs Alexei PopyrinAdelaide Round of 32

Adelaide · ATP · Round of 32
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
Opelka R.
6-3 7-6
Popyrin A.
Opelka R.
6782
Popyrin A.
3660

Reilly Opelka defeated Alexei Popyrin 6-3 7-6 in the Adelaide round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexei Popyrin came in ranked #103, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Reilly Opelka claimed a first win over Alexei Popyrin in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Reilly Opelka closed it out in two sets, 6–3 7–6.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-03-22Miami MastersR64hardAlexei Popyrin6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving97% hold

wins 79% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Popyrin A.serving97% hold

wins 78% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Popyrin A.
86
Serve
40
0
Return
11

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
81%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
58%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
74%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
27%
32%
Break points saved·Clear edge
79%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
21.3
11.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
63
59
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Slight edge
1
6
Deciding sets·Clear edge
88
75
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+53 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1681
5.5Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1741
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
2.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
7.7
Minutes 14d
8.9
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.2
Country comfort
6.5
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Popyrin A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%