Ugo Humbert vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaAdelaide Semi-final

Adelaide · ATP · Semi-final
#30ATP
1868ELO
1843Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$12MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#23ATP
1893ELO
1842Hard ELO
$926kYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Humbert U.
6-3 5-7 7-6
Davidovich Fokina A.
Humbert U.
65772
Davidovich Fokina A.
37641

Ugo Humbert defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3 5-7 7-6 in the Adelaide semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina came in ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 16. Ugo Humbert narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Ugo Humbert closed it out in three sets, 6–3 5–7 7–6.

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20BaselSFhardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina7-6(4) 3-1 RET
2024-02-05MarseilleQFhardUgo Humbert6-1 6-4
2023-02-06MontpellierR32hardAlejandro Davidovich Fokina1-6 7-6(2) 0-0 RET
2021-04-26EstorilQFclayAlejandro Davidovich Fokina6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Humbert U.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Davidovich Fokina A.

Davidovich Fokina A.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Humbert U.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Humbert U.Davidovich Fokina A.
64
Serve
40
15
Return
53

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
66%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.0
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
70
91
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
37
95
Deciding sets·Clear edge
78
91
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0+1 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Hard Elo 1842
4.6Overall Elo 1868
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1893
3.3
H2H
6.7
6.2
Surface form
5.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.4
Minutes 14d
9.0
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
5.1
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
75

Humbert U.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%