Sebastian Baez vs Ben SheltonAuckland Quarter-final

Auckland · ATP · Quarter-final
#56ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#6ATP
1960ELO
1922Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$14MCAREER
23 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWLW
Baez S.
7-5 6-3
Shelton B.
Baez S.
762
Shelton B.
530

Sebastian Baez defeated Ben Shelton 7-5 6-3 in the Auckland quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Ben Shelton came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16, but Sebastian Baez had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Sebastian Baez claimed a first win over Ben Shelton in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-09AucklandR32hardBen Shelton7-6(1) 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Shelton B.

Shelton B.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Baez S.Shelton B.
5
Serve
75
63
Return
18

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
65%
78%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
72%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
32%
Break points saved·Clear edge
63%
78%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.0
12.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
87
86
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Dominant
86
58
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
83
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
2.2Hard Elo 1709
Surface ELO
7.8+213 Hard Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1960
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.5
Surface form
3.2
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
6.5
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
95

Baez S.: 15 days rest · Shelton B.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
24°CDrizzle
Wind 25 km/hHumidity 64%