Yuki Naito vs Xinxin Yao — W75 Nonthaburi Round of 16

W75 Nonthaburi · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
JPN
Yuki Naito
#290WTA
1382ELO
1394Hard ELO
25 yrs · 163 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWLW
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
hard
CHN
Xinxin Yao
#289WTA
1450ELO
1440Hard ELO
22 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
Naito Y.
6-4 6-2
Yao X.
Naito Y.
662
Yao X.
42–

Yuki Naito defeated Xinxin Yao 6-4 6-2 in the W75 Nonthaburi round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Xinxin Yao came in ranked #289, defending the title.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Naito Y.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Yao X.

Yao X.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Naito Y.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Naito Y.Yao X.
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
46%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Even
47%
47%
Break points saved·Even
53%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
0.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Naito Y.
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Yao X.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1394
Surface ELO
5.1+46 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1382
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1450
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.7
Surface form
2.0
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Draw

Final
Sawangkaew M.
Pigato L.
6-16-4
Pigato L.
Abe H.
6-46-766-2
Semi-finals
Pigato L.
Naito Y.
7-656-4
Sawangkaew M.
Bains N.
6-37-5
Abe H.
Maklakova E.
6-46-4
Pigato L.
Tian F.
6-13-66-4
Quarter-finals
Pigato L.
Yamalapalli S.
6-47-5
Bains N.
Saito S.
7-616-4
Sawangkaew M.
Hosogi S.
7-57-5
Naito Y.
Hercog P.
6-26-4
Maklakova E.
Kinoshita H.
3-66-36-4
Pigato L.
Yamaguchi M.
6-32-66-2
Abe H.
Okamura K.
7-56-2
Tian F.
Kawaguchi N.
6-16-0
R16
Naito Y.
Yao X.
6-46-2
Hosogi S.
Abe H.
7-646-3
Saito S.
Yang Y.
7-54-2
Bains N.
Ma Y.
6-30-0
Sawangkaew M.
Naklo T.
6-46-4
Yamalapalli S.
Chanta A.
6-37-5
Pigato L.
Von Deichmann K.
6-16-2
Hercog P.
Ristic M.
5-77-626-4
Pigato L.
Cheapchandej P.
6-36-756-1
Kawaguchi N.
Saito S.
2-66-46-3
Abe H.
Tikhonova A.
6-03-66-1
Tian F.
Saigo R.
6-16-3
Okamura K.
Kuramochi M.
6-36-4
Maklakova E.
Scott K.
7-652-66-4
Kinoshita H.
Schunk N.
7-686-0
Yamaguchi M.
Matsuda M.
6-26-3
R32
Pigato L.
Maklakova E.
6-27-5
Bains N.
Zheng W.
6-16-4
Von Deichmann K.
Yodpetch K.
6-34-66-2
Ristic M.
Muramatsu C.
6-26-2
Hosogi S.
Zhang J.
6-26-4
Hercog P.
Tian F.
6-756-36-4
Yao X.
Schunk N.
3-66-47-5
Chanta A.
Cheapchandej P.
6-26-1
Naklo T.
Plipuech P.
6-36-3
Naito Y.
Niemeier J.
4-66-16-4
Yang Y.
Saigo R.
6-06-757-5
Saito S.
Tikhonova A.
6-42-67-65
Ma Y.
Scott K.
7-627-5
Abe H.
Okamura K.
6-26-2
Yamalapalli S.
Paquet C.
3-66-46-4
Sawangkaew M.
Nugroho P.
6-26-4
Okamura K.
Zheng W.
6-16-3
Tian F.
Hosogi S.
1-67-56-2
Scott K.
Yamalapalli S.
6-36-2
Kinoshita H.
Novak K.
6-16-4
Saigo R.
Niemeier J.
7-57-5
Tikhonova A.
Plipuech P.
6-26-2
Kuramochi M.
Podgorichani L.
7-56-4
Maklakova E.
Ristic M.
6-16-2
Yamaguchi M.
Kolodynska J.
6-44-66-4
Schunk N.
Yao X.
2-66-16-2
Matsuda M.
Naklo T.
7-56-3
Pigato L.
Cherubini D.
6-36-2
Abe H.
Yodpetch K.
6-16-3
Kawaguchi N.
Yang Y.
3-66-36-3
Cheapchandej P.
Sakellaridi S.
6-16-2
Saito S.
Yamazaki I.
3-67-56-3