Mitchell Krueger vs Yosuke WatanukiCanberra CH Qualifying Round 1

Canberra CH · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#349ATP
1461ELO
1436Hard ELO
32 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
hard
#294ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLLLLW
Krueger M.
3-6 6-2 6-3
Watanuki Y.
Krueger M.
3662
Watanuki Y.
6231

Mitchell Krueger defeated Yosuke Watanuki 3-6 6-2 6-3 in the Canberra CH qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Yosuke Watanuki came in ranked #294, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Mitchell Krueger claimed a first win over Yosuke Watanuki in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-01WashingtonQ2hardYosuke Watanuki7-6(1) 6-3
2018-07-30WashingtonQ3hardYosuke Watanuki

Serve vs return

This season
Krueger M.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Watanuki Y.

Watanuki Y.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Krueger M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
67%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.3
5.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
15
52
Break points saved·Even
87
89
Break points won·Slight edge
14
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
0
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1436
Surface ELO
6.2+95 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1541
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
6.9
0.0
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
99
90

Krueger M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Watanuki Y.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast