Toby Samuel vs Stefan Kozlov — Nottingham CH Quarter-final

Nottingham CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
GBR3
Toby Samuel
#123ATP
1745ELO
1595Grass ELO
$175kYTD
$290kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
grass
Stefan Kozlov
USA7
Stefan Kozlov
#317ATP
1429ELO
1414Grass ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
Samuel T.
7-6 6-4
Kozlov S.
Samuel T.
7762
Kozlov S.
6140

Toby Samuel defeated Stefan Kozlov 7-6 6-4 in the Nottingham CH quarter-final on grass. The result followed the form book — Toby Samuel came in ranked #123.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Samuel T.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kozlov S.

Kozlov S.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Serve advantage — Samuel T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Samuel T.Kozlov S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.5
2.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Samuel T.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Kozlov S.
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.8+180 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Grass Elo 1414
8.6Overall Elo 1745
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1429
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
1.9
Surface form
2.9
10.013-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Samuel T.Kozlov S.
Freshness·Dominant
92
53

Samuel T.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Kozlov S.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Chidekh C.[2]
Monday J.[1]
5-76-27-65
Semi-finals
Monday J.[1]
Kukushkin M.
6-46-2
Chidekh C.[2]
Samuel T.[3]
6-35-76-3
Quarter-finals
Kukushkin M.
Kingsley C.
6-27-5
Samuel T.[3]
Kozlov S.[7]
7-616-4
Chidekh C.[2]
Broom C.
6-36-2
Monday J.[1]
Gentzsch T.[8]
6-16-3
R16
Monday J.[1]
Hussey G.
6-16-2
Gentzsch T.[8]
Krumich M.
4-66-37-63
Kukushkin M.
Negritu C.
6-26-1
Kingsley C.
Gray A.[6]
6-44-66-1
Kozlov S.[7]
Erhard M.
6-26-4
Broom C.
Ritschard A.
6-46-2
Chidekh C.[2]
Jubb P.
6-26-3
Samuel T.[3]
Broady L.
6-36-3
R32
Hussey G.
Guerrieri A.
6-46-4
Monday J.[1]
Maxted L.
4-67-656-4
Krumich M.
Kopp S.
6-16-2
Gentzsch T.[8]
Brunold M.
6-796-46-4
Negritu C.
Kuzmanov D.[4]
6-41-67-5
Kukushkin M.
Malige M.
6-36-0
Kingsley C.
Searle H.
6-46-1
Gray A.[6]
Gombos N.
6-13-66-1
Kozlov S.[7]
Zink T.
6-46-1
Erhard M.
Strombachs R.
7-653-67-65
Broady L.
Masur D.
6-34-66-3
Samuel T.[3]
Overbeck C.
6-26-4
Ritschard A.
Pereira T.[5]
7-656-1
Broom C.
Wendelken H.
7-56-3
Jubb P.
Soriano Barrera A.
6-36-737-64
Chidekh C.[2]
Matusevich A.
6-736-46-0