Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka — United Cup Quarter-final

United Cup · ATP · Quarter-final
Sebastian Baez
ARG14
Sebastian Baez
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
hard
Stan Wawrinka
SUI16
Stan Wawrinka
#109ATP
1678ELO
1664Hard ELO
$657kYTD
$38MCAREER
41 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLLLL
Baez S.
7-5 6-4
Wawrinka S.
Baez S.
762
Wawrinka S.
540

Sebastian Baez defeated Stan Wawrinka 7-5 6-4 in the United Cup quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Sebastian Baez extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-05Monte Carlo MastersR64claySebastian Baez7-5 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Wawrinka S.

Wawrinka S.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Serve advantage — Baez S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Baez S.Wawrinka S.
5
Serve
48
63
Return
8

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Baez S.Wawrinka S.
1st serve in·Clear edge
72%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
33%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
7.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Baez S.Wawrinka S.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
87
65
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
86
30
Deciding sets·Clear edge
88
71
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Baez S.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Wawrinka S.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.5+45 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1664
5.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1678
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.5
Surface form
5.0
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.3
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Baez S.Wawrinka S.
Freshness·Even
95
93

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Wawrinka S.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw

Final
Hurkacz H.[9]
Wawrinka S.[16]
6-33-66-3
Semi-finals
Hurkacz H.[9]
Fritz T.[1]
7-617-62
Bergs Z.[7]
Wawrinka S.[16]
6-36-746-3
Quarter-finals
Bergs Z.[7]
Mensik J.[11]
6-27-64
Tsitsipas S.[12]
Fritz T.[1]
6-47-5
Baez S.[14]
Wawrinka S.[16]
7-56-4
De Minaur A.[4]
Hurkacz H.[9]
6-44-66-4
Round Robin
De Minaur A.[4]
Mensik J.[11]
6-46-1
Auger Aliassime F.[2]
Zhang Z.[18]
6-46-4
Baez S.[14]
Fritz T.[1]
4-67-56-4
Fritz T.[1]
Munar J.[10]
7-643-67-66
Zhang Z.[18]
Bergs Z.[7]
6-727-637-5
Hurkacz H.[9]
Zverev A.[6]
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[12]
Harris B.[5]
4-66-17-64
Harris B.[5]
Mochizuki S.[13]
7-646-3
Tsitsipas S.[12]
Mochizuki S.[13]
6-36-4
Rinderknech A.[8]
Cobolli F.[3]
6-747-657-5
Baez S.[14]
Munar J.[10]
6-46-4
Hurkacz H.[9]
Griekspoor T.[15]
6-37-64
Cobolli F.[3]
Wawrinka S.[16]
6-46-727-64
Wawrinka S.[16]
Rinderknech A.[8]
5-77-657-65
Mensik J.[11]
Ruud C.[17]
7-57-66
Ruud C.[17]
De Minaur A.[4]
6-36-3
Zverev A.[6]
Griekspoor T.[15]
7-56-0
Bergs Z.[7]
Auger Aliassime F.[2]
6-46-2