Raphael Collignon vs Denis ShapovalovBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · ATP · Round of 32
#43ATP
1894ELO
1837Hard ELO
$633kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Collignon R.
6-4 6-2
Shapovalov D.
Collignon R.
662
Shapovalov D.
420

Raphael Collignon defeated Denis Shapovalov 6-4 6-2 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Collignon R.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Collignon R.

Serve advantage — Collignon R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Collignon R.Shapovalov D.
39
Serve
25
32
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
36%
Break points saved·Even
59%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
7.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
73
85
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
99
Break points won·Clear edge
55
71
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.5+62 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1775
6.1Overall Elo 1894
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1771
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.0
Surface form
5.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
5.4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
98

Collignon R.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shapovalov D.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%