Learner Tien vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · ATP · Round of 32
#17ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#59ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Tien L.
7-6 6-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Tien L.
7762
Ugo Carabelli C.
6430

Learner Tien defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 7-6 6-3 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Learner Tien came in ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Learner Tien extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Learner Tien closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-01-13Australian OpenR128hardLearner Tien4-6 7-6(3) 6-3 5-7 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Tien L.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Tien L.

Serve advantage — Tien L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tien L.Ugo Carabelli C.
32
Serve
0
67
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.1
2.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
90
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
90
Break points won·Clear edge
83
62
Deciding sets·Even
100
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
100
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
3.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
8.1+263 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1642
6.8Overall Elo 1941
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1759
10.0
H2H
0.0
9.0
Surface form
2.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
87
97

Tien L.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%