Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Carreno BustaBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · ATP · Round of 32
#146ATP
1744ELO
1736Hard ELO
$307kYTD
$32MCAREER
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Dimitrov G.
6-3 6-2
Carreno Busta P.
Dimitrov G.
662
Carreno Busta P.
320

Grigor Dimitrov defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 6-2 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #71. Grigor Dimitrov extended the head-to-head to 5–3.

Key context

Head to head

43
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-02-08Australian OpenR32hardGrigor Dimitrov6-0 1-0 RET
2018-04-23BarcelonaQFclayPablo Carreno Busta6-3 7-6(4)
2017-11-13Tour FinalsRRhardGrigor Dimitrov6-1 6-1
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR32clayPablo Carreno Busta7-5 6-3 6-4
2016-05-02Madrid MastersR64clayPablo Carreno Busta7-6(3) 6-3
2015-11-02Paris MastersR64hardGrigor Dimitrov6-4 6-1
2014-05-04Madrid MastersR64clayGrigor Dimitrov6-2 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Dimitrov G.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Dimitrov G.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Dimitrov G.Carreno Busta P.
Serve
21
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
30%
40%
Break points saved·Even
52%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.4
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Slight edge
66
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
80
Tiebreaks·Even
96
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 69 days (−1.2)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
5.3Hard Elo 1736
Surface ELO
4.7+8 Hard Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
5.4
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.4
Country comfort
5.6
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
59
89

Dimitrov G.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 103 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%