Varvara Lepchenko vs Maja ChwalinskaBuenos Aires 125 Round of 16

Buenos Aires 125 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#172WTA
1578ELO
1533Clay ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 November 2025
clay
#22WTA
1833ELO
1801Clay ELO
$1.7MYTD
$2.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 164 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWW
Lepchenko V.
1-6 7-5 7-6
Chwalinska M.
Lepchenko V.
17772
Chwalinska M.
65631

Varvara Lepchenko defeated Maja Chwalinska 1-6 7-5 7-6 in the Buenos Aires 125 round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Maja Chwalinska came in ranked #22.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Lepchenko V.serving40% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Chwalinska M.

Chwalinska M.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Lepchenko V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Break points saved·Even
54%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
48
65
Break points saved·Clear edge
64
50
Break points won·Dominant
65
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
74
80
Tiebreaks·
39

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.0Clay Elo 1533
Surface ELO
7.0+268 Clay Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1578
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1833
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.6
Surface form
6.9
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
59
97

Lepchenko V.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 101 games (7d) · Chwalinska M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast