Jason Kubler vs Alex Bolt — Sydney CH Quarter-final

Sydney CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
AUS4
Jason Kubler
#465ATP
1685ELO
1635Hard ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 November 2025
hard
Alex Bolt
AUS7
Alex Bolt
#152ATP
1588ELO
1541Hard ELO
$125kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLL
Kubler J.
7-5 6-3
Bolt A.
Kubler J.
762
Bolt A.
530

Jason Kubler defeated Alex Bolt 7-5 6-3 in the Sydney CH quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex Bolt came in ranked #152, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

  • Match story: Jason Kubler closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Kubler J.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Bolt A.

Bolt A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Kubler J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Kubler J.Bolt A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.8
7.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 86). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kubler J.Bolt A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
59
44
Break points saved·Even
90
93
Break points won·Dominant
46
7
Deciding sets·Dominant
79
46
Tiebreaks·Dominant
37
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kubler J.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Bolt A.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+95 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1541
5.9Overall Elo 1685
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1588
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.8
Surface form
8.4
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.5
Minutes 14d
6.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kubler J.Bolt A.
Freshness·
—
100

Bolt A.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Final
Duckworth J.[1]
Matsuoka H.
6-16-4
Semi-finals
Duckworth J.[1]
Kubler J.[4]
7-56-2
Matsuoka H.
Mccabe J.[5]
7-56-4
Quarter-finals
Mccabe J.[5]
Hijikata R.[2]
6-37-5
Kubler J.[4]
Bolt A.[7]
7-56-3
Matsuoka H.
Sach T.
4-67-56-1
Duckworth J.[1]
Sweeny D.[6]
6-26-3
R16
Kubler J.[4]
Gengel M.
6-46-2
Mccabe J.[5]
Singh K.
6-36-2
Duckworth J.[1]
Dellavedova M.
6-36-0
Sweeny D.[6]
Wu T.
6-17-65
Bolt A.[7]
Sekulic P.
6-26-1
Sach T.
Ellis B.
W/O
Hijikata R.[2]
Overbeck C.
7-637-62
Matsuoka H.
Hewitt C.
5-76-37-5
R32
Sweeny D.[6]
Langmo C.
2-0
Sach T.
Noguchi R.[8]
2-66-16-2
Singh K.
Shah A.
7-626-3
Duckworth J.[1]
Bouzige M.
6-46-1
Dellavedova M.
Peliwo F.
6-26-2
Wu T.
Polmans M.
6-43-67-5
Kubler J.[4]
Marinkov P.
6-31-66-2
Hewitt C.
Jasika O.
3-67-666-4
Mccabe J.[5]
Moriya H.
6-46-3
Hijikata R.[2]
Bicknell B.
6-45-76-2
Gengel M.
Jones H.
5-76-47-5
Bolt A.[7]
Kumasaka T.
6-36-4
Ellis B.
Hazawa S.
6-706-26-4
Overbeck C.
Delaney J.
6-36-2
Sekulic P.
Hudd E.
6-32-66-3
Matsuoka H.
Tomic B.[3]
6-40-0