Federico Arnaboldi vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Bergamo CH Round of 32

Bergamo CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Federico Arnaboldi
ITA
Federico Arnaboldi
#527ATP
1328ELO
1300Hard ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 November 2025
hard
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN1
Shintaro Mochizuki
#115ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
Arnaboldi F.
7-6 4-6 6-2
Mochizuki S.
Arnaboldi F.
77462
Mochizuki S.
64621

Federico Arnaboldi defeated Shintaro Mochizuki 7-6 4-6 6-2 in the Bergamo CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Shintaro Mochizuki came in ranked #115.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaboldi F.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Mochizuki S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Arnaboldi F.

Serve advantage — Mochizuki S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Arnaboldi F.Mochizuki S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
57%
Aces / match·Even
3.4
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (69 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Arnaboldi F.Mochizuki S.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
38
52
Break points saved·Dominant
41
74
Break points won·Dominant
15
55
Deciding sets·Dominant
76
47
Tiebreaks·Even
80
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Arnaboldi F.
3.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Mochizuki S.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1300
Surface ELO
6.6+125 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1328
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1475
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.6
Surface form
5.7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.8
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Arnaboldi F.Mochizuki S.
Freshness·Even
83
86

Arnaboldi F.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Mochizuki S.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Maestrelli F.[8]
Topo M.
6-33-66-1
Semi-finals
Maestrelli F.[8]
Engel J.
6-46-2
Topo M.
Travaglia S.
6-36-4
Quarter-finals
Travaglia S.
Arnaboldi F.
6-36-3
Topo M.
Passaro F.[4]
7-56-3
Maestrelli F.[8]
Napolitano S.
6-37-67
Engel J.
Guerrieri A.
6-33-67-64
R16
Travaglia S.
Karol M.
6-47-5
Passaro F.[4]
Sciahbasi L.
6-26-3
Topo M.
Zhukayev B.
6-47-64
Maestrelli F.[8]
Gadamauri B.
6-36-3
Napolitano S.
Visker N.
6-46-4
Guerrieri A.
Donski A.
6-46-0
Arnaboldi F.
Fatic N.
7-54-67-5
Engel J.
Lajal M.[7]
W/O
R32
Engel J.
Stewart H.
2-1
Maestrelli F.[8]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-43-67-63
Zhukayev B.
Brunold M.
6-31-66-3
Arnaboldi F.
Mochizuki S.[1]
7-644-66-2
Passaro F.[4]
Ribecai M.
7-666-2
Sciahbasi L.
Durasovic V.
3-67-657-5
Topo M.
Choinski J.[5]
7-636-4
Napolitano S.
Virtanen O.[3]
3-67-666-4
Donski A.
Tabacco F.
4-66-36-4
Guerrieri A.
Harris B.[2]
6-757-56-3
Gadamauri B.
Basile P.
6-36-2
Visker N.
Gentzsch T.
7-636-4
Lajal M.[7]
Vatutin A.
5-77-56-3
Karol M.
Pellegrino A.[6]
6-46-2
Travaglia S.
Dodig M.
6-33-67-64
Fatic N.
Andaloro F.
6-46-6