Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Sebastian BaezMontevideo CH Round of 32

Montevideo CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#277ATP
1442ELO
1412Clay ELO
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 November 2025
clay
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Guillen Meza A.
7-6 6-4
Baez S.
Guillen Meza A.
7762
Baez S.
6340

Alvaro Guillen Meza defeated Sebastian Baez 7-6 6-4 in the Montevideo CH round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #56.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Guillen Meza A.serving61% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Guillen Meza A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Guillen Meza A.Baez S.
Serve
1
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
58%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
40%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (86 vs 79). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
19
87
Break points saved·Dominant
43
96
Break points won·Dominant
41
86
Deciding sets·Dominant
36
88
Tiebreaks·Dominant
17
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.3Clay Elo 1412
Surface ELO
7.7+306 Clay Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1442
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.3
Surface form
2.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
0.0
Minutes 14d
9.2
0.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
9.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
100

Guillen Meza A.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Baez S.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast