Lorenzo Sonego vs Flavio CobolliMetz Round of 16

Metz · ATP · Round of 16
#69ATP
1719ELO
1702Hard ELO
$435kYTD
$9.8MCAREER
31 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 2 November 2025
hard
#10ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
Sonego L.
2-6 6-3 7-5
Cobolli F.
Sonego L.
2672
Cobolli F.
6351

Lorenzo Sonego defeated Flavio Cobolli 2-6 6-3 7-5 in the Metz round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Flavio Cobolli came in ranked #10.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Sonego L.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Cobolli F.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Sonego L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sonego L.Cobolli F.
41
Serve
20
38
Return
35

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.2
5.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (58 vs 84). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
69
76
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Slight edge
45
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
71
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
88
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1702
Surface ELO
6.1+108 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1719
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1896
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.3
Surface form
4.2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.2
Minutes 14d
6.5
4.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
56

Sonego L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 42 games (7d) · Cobolli F.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast