Diana Shnaider vs Dayana YastremskaTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · WTA · Round of 32
#15WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$6.1MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 October 2025
hard
#67WTA
1792ELO
1733Hard ELO
$505kYTD
$6.5MCAREER
26 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
Shnaider D.
6-3 6-1
Yastremska D.
Shnaider D.
662
Yastremska D.
310

Diana Shnaider defeated Dayana Yastremska 6-3 6-1 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Diana Shnaider came in ranked #15, defending last year's semi-final. Diana Shnaider extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR64clayDayana Yastremska7-5 7-5
2024-06-24Bad HomburgR16grassDiana Shnaider6-2 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Shnaider D.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Yastremska D.

Yastremska D.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Shnaider D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shnaider D.Yastremska D.
41
Serve
11
37
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
77
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
89
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
63
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
6.2+100 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1733
6.2Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1792
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.9
Surface form
3.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.8
Minutes 14d
5.6
4.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
90

Shnaider D.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Yastremska D.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 81%