Reilly Opelka vs Sebastian Baez — Basel Round of 32

Basel · ATP · Round of 32
Reilly Opelka
USA
Reilly Opelka
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 20 October 2025
hard
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Opelka R.
6-3 6-4
Baez S.
Opelka R.
662
Baez S.
340

Reilly Opelka defeated Sebastian Baez 6-3 6-4 in the Basel round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

  • Match story: Reilly Opelka closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Baez S.
86
Serve
5
0
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Opelka R.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
72%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
79%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
60%
Return points won·Clear edge
28%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
74%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
16.9
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (67 vs 79). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Opelka R.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
63
87
Break points saved·Even
100
96
Break points won·Dominant
1
86
Deciding sets·Even
88
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Opelka R.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Baez S.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+25 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1709
5.3Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.1
Surface form
3.0
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.3
Minutes 14d
9.3
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Opelka R.Baez S.
Freshness·
—
95

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Fonseca J.
Davidovich Fokina A.[8]
6-36-4
Semi-finals
Davidovich Fokina A.[8]
Humbert U.
7-643-1
Fonseca J.
Munar J.
7-647-5
Quarter-finals
Fonseca J.
Shapovalov D.[9]
3-66-34-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[8]
Ruud C.[4]
7-610-0
Munar J.
Auger Aliassime F.[5]
6-30-0
Humbert U.
Opelka R.
7-606-4
R16
Fonseca J.
Mensik J.[7]
W/O
Auger Aliassime F.[5]
Cilic M.
7-627-62
Opelka R.
Van De Zandschulp B.
7-656-776-3
Shapovalov D.[9]
Royer V.
7-636-2
Munar J.
Shelton B.[2]
6-36-4
Humbert U.
Fritz T.[1]
6-36-4
Davidovich Fokina A.[8]
Brooksby J.
6-766-47-5
Ruud C.[4]
Wawrinka S.
6-47-65
R32
Opelka R.
Baez S.
6-36-4
Wawrinka S.
Kecmanovic M.
6-17-63
Van De Zandschulp B.
Lehecka J.[6]
6-26-2
Shelton B.[2]
Majchrzak K.
6-726-37-67
Brooksby J.
Muller A.
6-46-3
Shapovalov D.[9]
Giron M.
6-736-07-64
Humbert U.
Korda S.
6-36-4
Royer V.
Collignon R.
6-47-65
Mensik J.[7]
Bernet H.
7-616-776-3
Fritz T.[1]
Vacherot V.
4-67-647-5
Cilic M.
Goffin D.
7-697-5
Davidovich Fokina A.[8]
Sonego L.
7-626-4
Munar J.
Bertola R.
6-26-4
Auger Aliassime F.[5]
Diallo G.
6-27-5
Fonseca J.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
7-666-3
Ruud C.[4]
Halys Q.
6-17-63