Ajla Tomljanovic vs Maya JointNingbo Qualifying Round 1

Ningbo · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#92WTA
1745ELO
1723Hard ELO
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#77WTA
1659ELO
1657Hard ELO
$391kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
20 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLWLL
Tomljanovic A.
4-6 6-2 6-4
Joint M.
Tomljanovic A.
4662
Joint M.
6241

Ajla Tomljanovic defeated Maya Joint 4-6 6-2 6-4 in the Ningbo qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Maya Joint came in ranked #77, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Ajla Tomljanovic narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-12AdelaideR16hardMaya Joint0-2 RET
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayAjla Tomljanovic6-1 6-3
2025-05-19RabatSFclayMaya Joint6-4 0-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Tomljanovic A.serving49% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Joint M.

Joint M.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Tomljanovic A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tomljanovic A.Joint M.
26
Serve
17
52
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
56%
Return points won·Even
44%
47%
Break points saved·Even
56%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.9
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 85). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
71
77
Break points saved·Even
73
76
Break points won·Slight edge
92
99
Deciding sets·Even
75
77
Tiebreaks·
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+65 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1657
4.9Overall Elo 1745
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1659
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.0
Surface form
6.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
94

Tomljanovic A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Joint M.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast