Pablo Carreno Busta vs Luka PavlovicOlbia CH Round of 16

Olbia CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#264ATP
1510ELO
1464Hard ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWLLL
Carreno Busta P.
3-6 6-1 6-2
Pavlovic L.
Carreno Busta P.
3662
Pavlovic L.
6121

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Luka Pavlovic 3-6 6-1 6-2 in the Olbia CH round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Pavlovic L.

Pavlovic L.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Pavlovic L.
21
Serve
44
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
66%
53%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.2
9.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
60
Break points saved·Even
97
93
Break points won·Dominant
61
24
Deciding sets·Slight edge
80
71
Tiebreaks·Even
95
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
8.3+280 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1464
8.2Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1510
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3.7
Minutes 14d
8.4
0.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
9.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
80

Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Pavlovic L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast