Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alvaro Guillen MezaCali CH Round of 16

Cali CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#308ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
clay
#276ATP
1442ELO
1412Clay ELO
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWLLL
Varillas J.
6-3 6-7 6-4
Guillen Meza A.
Varillas J.
66462
Guillen Meza A.
37741

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Alvaro Guillen Meza 6-3 6-7 6-4 in the Cali CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alvaro Guillen Meza came in ranked #276, defending last year's round of 32, but Juan Pablo Varillas had been the form player, winning 4 of their last 10 on clay.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Varillas J.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Guillen Meza A.

Guillen Meza A.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Varillas J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Even
41%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (74 vs 86). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
19
Break points saved·Dominant
80
43
Break points won·Even
43
41
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
36
Tiebreaks·Dominant
72
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7+19 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.3Clay Elo 1412
4.6Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1442
4.6No prior meetings
H2H
5.4
5.0
Surface form
7.2
Fatigue & Travel
6.4
Minutes 14d
0.0
7.0
3-set count
0.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
49
90

Varillas J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d) · Guillen Meza A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast