Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Brandon HoltJinan CH Quarter-final

Jinan CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#145ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#558ATP
1537ELO
1507Hard ELO
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLWW
Mcdonald M.
6-3 4-6 7-6
Holt B.
Mcdonald M.
64792
Holt B.
36671

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Brandon Holt 6-3 4-6 7-6 in the Jinan CH quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Mackenzie Mcdonald came in ranked #145, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Mackenzie Mcdonald extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-17Winston-SalemR64hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(2)
2025-01-13Australian OpenQ2hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Holt B.

Holt B.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Holt B.
25
Serve
10
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Even
4.9
5.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
0.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 75). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
58
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
85
Break points won·Dominant
66
31
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
79
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+97 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1507
6.3Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1537
10.0
H2H
0.0
6.5
Surface form
3.3
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.0
Minutes 14d
8.6
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
87

Mcdonald M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast