Pavel Kotov vs August Holmgren — Jinan CH Round of 32

Jinan CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Pavel Kotov
RUS
Pavel Kotov
#249ATP
1597ELO
1601Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
DEN
August Holmgren
#143ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$130kYTD
$646kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWLWL
Kotov P.
6-3 6-4
Holmgren A.
Kotov P.
662
Holmgren A.
340

Pavel Kotov defeated August Holmgren 6-3 6-4 in the Jinan CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — August Holmgren came in ranked #143.

Key context

  • Match story: Pavel Kotov closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Kotov P.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Holmgren A.

Holmgren A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Kotov P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Kotov P.Holmgren A.
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
36%
34%
Break points saved·Even
63%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
8.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (58 vs 78). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kotov P.Holmgren A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
59
43
Break points saved·Even
94
90
Break points won·Clear edge
13
0
Deciding sets·Dominant
82
46
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
76
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kotov P.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Holmgren A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+84 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1517
6.3Overall Elo 1597
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1566
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.4
Surface form
5.1
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
5.6
7.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kotov P.Holmgren A.
Freshness·
—
85

Holmgren A.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Cazaux A.[1]
Mcdonald M.[6]
6-36-2
Semi-finals
Cazaux A.[1]
Mochizuki S.[7]
6-16-2
Mcdonald M.[6]
Bar Biryukov P.
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Mochizuki S.[7]
Tomic B.
6-16-4
Bar Biryukov P.
Smith C.
6-47-64
Mcdonald M.[6]
Holt B.
6-34-67-67
Cazaux A.[1]
Zhou Y.
6-43-66-0
R16
Smith C.
Droguet T.
6-13-67-5
Cazaux A.[1]
Draxl L.
6-27-63
Zhou Y.
Hijikata R.
7-53-66-4
Tomic B.
Harris B.
6-46-746-2
Holt B.
Walton A.[2]
6-46-3
Mcdonald M.[6]
Kotov P.
7-56-2
Bar Biryukov P.
Wong C.
6-46-757-65
Mochizuki S.[7]
Jacquet K.
6-36-2
R32
Tomic B.
Svrcina D.[4]
6-10-66-2
Draxl L.
Oconnell C.
4-61-1
Jacquet K.
Samrej K.
7-56-2
Harris B.
Watanuki Y.
1-66-36-2
Smith C.
Duckworth J.[8]
6-47-66
Droguet T.
Cui J.
6-46-1
Bar Biryukov P.
Daniel T.
7-654-66-3
Wong C.
Djere L.[3]
7-6106-2
Kotov P.
Holmgren A.
6-36-4
Holt B.
Zhukov M.
3-66-46-3
Cazaux A.[1]
Blanchet U.
6-36-4
Hijikata R.
Yevseyev D.
6-46-2
Zhou Y.
Schoolkate T.[5]
7-626-4
Mcdonald M.[6]
Mayot H.
6-37-62
Mochizuki S.[7]
Mccabe J.
6-36-4
Walton A.[2]
Sun F.
3-67-56-4