Sergey Fomin vs Rio NoguchiJinan CH Qualifying Round 1

Jinan CH · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 1
#297ATP
1422ELO
1370Hard ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#222ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLL
Fomin S.
6-7 6-4 7-6
Noguchi R.
Fomin S.
646772
Noguchi R.
774621

Sergey Fomin defeated Rio Noguchi 6-7 6-4 7-6 in the Jinan CH qualifying round 1 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Rio Noguchi came in ranked #222, defending last year's final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Fomin S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Noguchi R.

Noguchi R.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Fomin S.

Serve advantage — Noguchi R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
55%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (49 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
16
23
Break points saved·Slight edge
20
25
Break points won·Even
24
26
Deciding sets·Clear edge
60
82
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
28
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 23 days (−0.3)
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1370
Surface ELO
6.6+143 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1422
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1532
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.7
Surface form
4.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.6
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
89
86

Fomin S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Noguchi R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast