Arthur Cazaux vs Mackenzie McdonaldJinan CH Final

Jinan CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#78ATP
1793ELO
1738Hard ELO
$46kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
#145ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
Cazaux A.
6-3 6-2
Mcdonald M.
Cazaux A.
662
Mcdonald M.
320

Arthur Cazaux defeated Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-3 6-2 in the Jinan CH final on hard. The result followed the form book — Arthur Cazaux came in ranked #78.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Cazaux A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Mcdonald M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Cazaux A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cazaux A.Mcdonald M.
40
Serve
25
19
Return
10

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.4
5.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (59 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
65
56
Break points saved·Even
97
96
Break points won·Dominant
27
66
Deciding sets·Dominant
87
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
70
44

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+134 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1604
6.9Overall Elo 1793
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1606
0.0No prior meetings
H2H
10.0
6.0
Surface form
6.5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
1.2
Minutes 14d
4.0
0.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Mcdonald M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast