Milos Karol vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Roanne CH Round of 32

Roanne CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
SVK
Milos Karol
#445ATP
1393ELO
1333Hard ELO
23 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 October 2025
hard
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP6
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Karol M.
6-7 7-5 7-6
Carreno Busta P.
Karol M.
687792
Carreno Busta P.
7105671

Milos Karol defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-7 7-5 7-6 in the Roanne CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #71.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Karol M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Karol M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Karol M.Carreno Busta P.
—
Serve
21
—
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Karol M.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.7
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (71 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Karol M.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
11
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
75
97
Break points won·Dominant
7
61
Deciding sets·Dominant
18
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
2
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Karol M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.1Hard Elo 1333
Surface ELO
9.9+411 Hard Elo edge
0.4Overall Elo 1393
ELO gap
9.6Overall Elo 1801
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.0
Surface form
7.7
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
5.4
7.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Karol M.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·
—
89

Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Virtanen O.
Gaston H.[5]
6-13-66-3
Semi-finals
Virtanen O.
Martineau M.
7-636-4
Gaston H.[5]
Dodig M.
3-66-36-3
Quarter-finals
Martineau M.
Brunold M.
6-746-17-60
Virtanen O.
Hemery C.
6-46-4
Gaston H.[5]
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-43-66-1
Dodig M.
Stricker D.
3-2
R16
Dodig M.
Passaro F.[8]
6-36-4
Budkov Kjaer N.
Bernet H.
6-33-66-1
Gaston H.[5]
Gojo B.
5-77-637-5
Brunold M.
Sakellaridis S.
6-26-3
Virtanen O.
Blockx A.[7]
2-66-37-63
Martineau M.
Karol M.
3-67-657-67
Stricker D.
Fearnley J.[1]
6-46-4
Hemery C.
Thompson J.[2]
5-2
R32
Stricker D.
Rodesch C.
6-47-65
Fearnley J.[1]
Van Assche L.
3-66-26-3
Dodig M.
Eubanks C.
6-46-4
Gaston H.[5]
Durasovic V.
7-56-3
Sakellaridis S.
Struff J.[4]
3-67-667-5
Hemery C.
Glinka D.
6-36-4
Thompson J.[2]
Added D.
6-36-1
Brunold M.
Engel J.
6-46-4
Gojo B.
Chidekh C.
6-04-67-5
Passaro F.[8]
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-43-66-4
Martineau M.
Galarneau A.
6-36-3
Blockx A.[7]
Sels J.
6-16-3
Bernet H.
Misolic F.[3]
3-66-36-4
Budkov Kjaer N.
Sachko V.
6-746-26-4
Virtanen O.
Paris T.
6-37-65
Karol M.
Carreno Busta P.[6]
6-787-57-67