Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliBeijing Round of 32

Beijing · ATP · Round of 32
#23ATP
1893ELO
1842Hard ELO
$926kYTD
$12MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 25 September 2025
hard
#59ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-1 6-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Davidovich Fokina A.
662
Ugo Carabelli C.
130

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-1 6-3 in the Beijing round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina came in ranked #23, defending last year's round of 16.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Davidovich Fokina A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Davidovich Fokina A.

Serve advantage — Davidovich Fokina A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Davidovich Fokina A.Ugo Carabelli C.
40
Serve
0
53
Return
5

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (85 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
91
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
90
Break points won·Dominant
95
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 49 days (−1.0)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.5+201 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1642
6.6Overall Elo 1893
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.7
Surface form
3.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.5
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
75
97

Davidovich Fokina A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 55 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 44%