Holger Rune vs Ethan Quinn — Tokyo Round of 16

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 16
Holger Rune
DEN3
Holger Rune
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
Ethan Quinn
USA
Ethan Quinn
#47ATP
1804ELO
1767Hard ELO
$724kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Rune H.
6-4 6-2
Quinn E.
Rune H.
662
Quinn E.
420

Holger Rune defeated Ethan Quinn 6-4 6-2 in the Tokyo round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Ethan Quinn came in ranked #47.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Quinn E.

Quinn E.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.Quinn E.
47
Serve
37
58
Return
21

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rune H.Quinn E.
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
63%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
7.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 92). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rune H.Quinn E.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
91
71
Break points saved·Even
99
95
Break points won·Dominant
84
19
Deciding sets·Even
98
98
Tiebreaks·Even
99
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rune H.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Quinn E.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1725
Surface ELO
5.3+43 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1804
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.6
Surface form
4.5
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.8
Minutes 14d
9.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rune H.Quinn E.
Freshness·
—
94

Quinn E.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%
Final
Alcaraz C.[1]
Fritz T.[2]
6-46-4
Semi-finals
Fritz T.[2]
Brooksby J.
6-46-3
Alcaraz C.[1]
Ruud C.[4]
3-66-36-4
Quarter-finals
Brooksby J.
Rune H.[3]
6-36-3
Ruud C.[4]
Vukic A.
6-36-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Nakashima B.
6-26-4
Fritz T.[2]
Korda S.
6-36-756-3
R16
Alcaraz C.[1]
Bergs Z.
6-46-3
Korda S.
Shimabukuro S.
6-16-4
Fritz T.[2]
Borges N.
7-57-64
Vukic A.
Altmaier D.
6-46-2
Ruud C.[4]
Berrettini M.
7-646-2
Nakashima B.
Fucsovics M.
7-56-3
Rune H.[3]
Quinn E.
6-46-2
Brooksby J.
Darderi L.
7-676-1
R32
Fucsovics M.
Tiafoe F.[8]
3-66-17-5
Fritz T.[2]
Diallo G.
4-66-37-63
Borges N.
Watanuki Y.
2-66-46-1
Rune H.[3]
Medjedovic H.
7-676-1
Altmaier D.
Shapovalov D.[7]
7-56-3
Vukic A.
Dzumhur D.
6-43-66-3
Quinn E.
Michelsen A.
7-56-2
Shimabukuro S.
Machac T.[5]
6-37-64
Bergs Z.
Tabilo A.
1-67-627-64
Korda S.
Giron M.
4-66-37-64
Nakashima B.
Thompson J.
6-767-646-2
Berrettini M.
Munar J.
6-46-2
Brooksby J.
Humbert U.[6]
7-646-3
Alcaraz C.[1]
Baez S.
6-46-2
Darderi L.
Nishioka Y.
7-696-3
Ruud C.[4]
Mochizuki S.
4-66-16-1