Casper Ruud vs Shintaro MochizukiTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#12ATP
1983ELO
1889Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#151ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
Ruud C.
4-6 6-1 6-1
Mochizuki S.
Ruud C.
4662
Mochizuki S.
6111

Casper Ruud defeated Shintaro Mochizuki 4-6 6-1 6-1 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Casper Ruud came in ranked #12, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Ruud C.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Mochizuki S.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Ruud C.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ruud C.Mochizuki S.
59
Serve
31
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
66%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
91
52
Break points saved·Dominant
99
74
Break points won·Clear edge
75
55
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
46
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
97
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+464 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1425
10.0Overall Elo 1983
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1475
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
5.3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
Country comfort
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
98
83

Ruud C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Mochizuki S.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%