Ethan Quinn vs Alex MichelsenTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#47ATP
1804ELO
1767Hard ELO
$724kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#46ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$785kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWWLWW
Quinn E.
7-5 6-2
Michelsen A.
Quinn E.
762
Michelsen A.
520

Ethan Quinn defeated Alex Michelsen 7-5 6-2 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex Michelsen came in ranked #46, defending last year's quarter-final.

Key context

  • Match story: Ethan Quinn closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Quinn E.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Michelsen A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Quinn E.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Quinn E.Michelsen A.
37
Serve
34
21
Return
46

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.2
5.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
71
78
Break points saved·Even
95
98
Break points won·Dominant
19
46
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
91
Tiebreaks·Even
97
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1767
Surface ELO
5.4+43 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1804
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1825
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.5
Surface form
4.9
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
9.1
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
91
67

Quinn E.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%