Sho Shimabukuro vs Tomas MachacTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · ATP · Round of 32
#90ATP
1672ELO
1606Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#49ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
Shimabukuro S.
6-3 7-6
Machac T.
Shimabukuro S.
6772
Machac T.
3640

Sho Shimabukuro defeated Tomas Machac 6-3 7-6 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tomas Machac came in ranked #49, defending last year's semi-final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Shimabukuro S.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Machac T.

Machac T.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Shimabukuro S.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Shimabukuro S.Machac T.
Serve
30
Return
25

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Even
6.2
6.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (91 vs 56). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
42
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
98
Break points won·Dominant
31
80
Deciding sets·Dominant
50
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 23 days (−0.3)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 48 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1606
Surface ELO
8.0+223 Hard Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1672
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1866
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
4.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
6.4
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
93

Shimabukuro S.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%