Sho Shimabukuro vs Juan Manuel CerundoloTokyo Qualifying Round 2

Tokyo · ATP · Qualifying Round 2
#95ATP
1672ELO
1606Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#45ATP
1790ELO
1658Hard ELO
$752kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
Shimabukuro S.
6-4 6-3
Cerundolo J.
Shimabukuro S.
662
Cerundolo J.
430

Sho Shimabukuro defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-4 6-3 in the Tokyo qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Juan Manuel Cerundolo came in ranked #45.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Shimabukuro S.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Cerundolo J.

Cerundolo J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Shimabukuro S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.2
3.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 108). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
42
85
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
82
Break points won·Dominant
31
80
Deciding sets·Dominant
50
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 23 days (−0.3)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1606
Surface ELO
5.4+51 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1672
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1790
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
6.5
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.7
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
6.4
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
98

Shimabukuro S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Cerundolo J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%