Matteo Arnaldi vs Luca NardiTokyo Qualifying Round 1

Tokyo · ATP · Qualifying Round 1
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 24 September 2025
hard
#160ATP
1585ELO
1572Hard ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
Arnaldi M.
6-0 6-7 6-3
Nardi L.
Arnaldi M.
66462
Nardi L.
07731

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Luca Nardi 6-0 6-7 6-3 in the Tokyo qualifying round 1 on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Nardi L.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Nardi L.
23
Serve
22
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.6
3.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (61 vs 82). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
32
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
92
Break points won·Dominant
51
15
Deciding sets·Dominant
86
42
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 48 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
6.2+160 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1572
6.4Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1585
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.4
Surface form
5.4
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
97
90

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Nardi L.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 49%