Alejandro Tabilo vs Lorenzo MusettiChengdu Final

Chengdu · ATP · Final
#33ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 17 September 2025
hard
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Tabilo A.
6-3 2-6 7-6
Musetti L.
Tabilo A.
62772
Musetti L.
36651

Alejandro Tabilo defeated Lorenzo Musetti 6-3 2-6 7-6 in the Chengdu final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Lorenzo Musetti came in ranked #15, defending last year's final, but Alejandro Tabilo had arrived on a 4-match winning run.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Tabilo A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Musetti L.

Musetti L.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tabilo A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tabilo A.Musetti L.
51
Serve
54
10
Return
62

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.8
4.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (86 vs 80). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
74
89
Break points saved·Even
97
98
Break points won·Clear edge
59
82
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
56
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 41 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1750
Surface ELO
6.7+54 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1819
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.6
Surface form
4.4
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.5
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
96

Tabilo A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast