Marina Stakusic vs Jelena OstapenkoGuadalajara Round of 16

Guadalajara · WTA · Round of 16
#140WTA
1707ELO
1672Hard ELO
21 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 8 September 2025
hard
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Stakusic M.
6-4 6-7 6-2
Ostapenko J.
Stakusic M.
66662
Ostapenko J.
47821

Marina Stakusic defeated Jelena Ostapenko 6-4 6-7 6-2 in the Guadalajara round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jelena Ostapenko came in ranked #31, defending last year's round of 16. Marina Stakusic extended the head-to-head to 2–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Marina Stakusic closed it out in three sets, 6–4 6–7 6–2.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-09GuadalajaraR16hardMarina Stakusic6-3 5-7 7-6(0)

Serve vs return

This season
Stakusic M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Ostapenko J.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Stakusic M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Stakusic M.Ostapenko J.
Serve
10
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
42%
Service points won·Even
56%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Even
53%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.4
5.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 56). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
61
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
73
79
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
54
96
Tiebreaks·
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 32 days (−1.0)
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1672
Surface ELO
6.4+122 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1707
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1855
10.0
H2H
0.0
2.7
Surface form
3.8
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
3-set count
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
92

Ostapenko J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast