Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona — Porto 2 CH Quarter-final

Porto 2 CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
BEL
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
#203ATP
1476ELO
1438Clay ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLWLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 25 August 2025
clay
ESP
Nicolas Alvarez Varona
#481ATP
1353ELO
1301Clay ELO
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWLL
Bailly G.
6-2 3-6 6-4
Alvarez Varona N.
Bailly G.
6362
Alvarez Varona N.
2641

Gilles Arnaud Bailly defeated Nicolas Alvarez Varona 6-2 3-6 6-4 in the Porto 2 CH quarter-final on clay.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Bailly G.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Alvarez Varona N.

Alvarez Varona N.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Bailly G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Bailly G.Alvarez Varona N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
46%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.6
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 48). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bailly G.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Alvarez Varona N.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
7.4+137 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Clay Elo 1301
7.2Overall Elo 1476
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1353
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
4.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bailly G.Alvarez Varona N.
Freshness·
66
—

Bailly G.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Den Ouden G.[2]
Bailly G.
6-46-2
Semi-finals
Bailly G.
Moro Canas A.
6-41-66-3
Den Ouden G.[2]
Ferreira Silva F.[8]
6-36-3
Quarter-finals
Den Ouden G.[2]
Michalski D.
4-66-46-4
Bailly G.
Alvarez Varona N.
6-23-66-4
Moro Canas A.
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
7-666-4
Ferreira Silva F.[8]
Jorda Sanchis D.
7-56-4
R16
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Dodig M.
6-36-2
Alvarez Varona N.
Barrena A.[4]
6-46-4
Michalski D.
Kuzmanov D.
4-67-57-5
Den Ouden G.[2]
Rocha F.
6-36-4
Bailly G.
Araujo P.
6-06-1
Moro Canas A.
Olivieri G.[7]
7-52-66-1
Jorda Sanchis D.
Brunold M.
6-33-66-4
Ferreira Silva F.[8]
Torres T.
6-36-3
R32
Alvarez Varona N.
Strombachs R.
6-06-2
Araujo P.
Ymer E.[5]
5-76-47-5
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Seyboth Wild T.[1]
6-26-4
Dodig M.
Pereira T.
2-66-46-4
Olivieri G.[7]
Hernandez Serrano J.
6-46-2
Bailly G.
Mrva M.
6-16-2
Ferreira Silva F.[8]
Alcala Gurri M.
6-34-66-2
Michalski D.
Sanchez Jover C.
6-47-66
Den Ouden G.[2]
Poljicak M.
6-31-66-2
Barrena A.[4]
Negritu C.
6-46-4
Brunold M.
Rocha H.[3]
7-646-0
Moro Canas A.
Wallin O.
6-36-4
Torres T.
Barton H.
6-31-66-4
Jorda Sanchis D.
Pieczonka F.
6-26-1
Kuzmanov D.
Popko D.[6]
6-36-4
Rocha F.
Mckennon M.
4-2