Luca Nardi vs Denis Shapovalov — Cincinnati Masters Round of 64

Cincinnati Masters · ATP · Round of 64
ITA
Luca Nardi
#166ATP
1585ELO
1572Hard ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 7 August 2025
hard
Denis Shapovalov
CAN24
Denis Shapovalov
#41ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWWL
Nardi L.
6-7 6-3 6-4
Shapovalov D.
Nardi L.
65662
Shapovalov D.
77341

Luca Nardi defeated Denis Shapovalov 6-7 6-3 6-4 in the Cincinnati Masters round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Denis Shapovalov came in ranked #41.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Nardi L.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Shapovalov D.

Shapovalov D.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nardi L.Shapovalov D.
—
Serve
25
—
Return
70

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Nardi L.Shapovalov D.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.7
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
5.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (81 vs 62). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nardi L.Shapovalov D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
33
85
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
99
Break points won·Dominant
15
71
Deciding sets·Dominant
42
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
20
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nardi L.
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 38 days (−0.7)
Shapovalov D.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1572
Surface ELO
7.5+203 Hard Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1585
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 1771
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.2
Surface form
6.9
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.1
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
5.6
7.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nardi L.Shapovalov D.
Freshness·Even
100
98

Nardi L.: 17 days rest · Shapovalov D.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 67%
Final
Alcaraz C.[2]
Sinner J.[1]
5-0
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Atmane T.
7-646-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Zverev A.[3]
6-46-3
Quarter-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
6-06-2
Alcaraz C.[2]
Rublev A.[9]
6-34-67-5
Atmane T.
Rune H.[7]
6-26-3
Zverev A.[3]
Shelton B.[5]
6-26-2
R16
Zverev A.[3]
Khachanov K.[14]
7-53-0
Rune H.[7]
Tiafoe F.[10]
6-43-1
Shelton B.[5]
Lehecka J.[22]
6-46-4
Rublev A.[9]
Comesana F.
6-26-3
Atmane T.
Fritz T.[4]
3-67-56-3
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
Bonzi B.
6-46-3
Alcaraz C.[2]
Nardi L.
6-16-4
Sinner J.[1]
Mannarino A.
6-47-64
R32
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
Rinderknech A.
7-644-2
Nardi L.
Mensik J.[16]
6-22-1
Lehecka J.[22]
Walton A.
7-657-63
Rune H.[7]
Michelsen A.[28]
7-646-3
Fritz T.[4]
Sonego L.[31]
7-647-5
Atmane T.
Fonseca J.
6-36-4
Rublev A.[9]
Popyrin A.[21]
6-757-657-5
Comesana F.
Opelka R.
6-746-47-5
Mannarino A.
Paul T.[13]
5-76-36-4
Zverev A.[3]
Nakashima B.[27]
6-46-4
Bonzi B.
Tsitsipas S.[25]
6-746-36-4
Sinner J.[1]
Diallo G.[30]
6-27-66
Khachanov K.[14]
Brooksby J.
6-36-3
Tiafoe F.[10]
Humbert U.[20]
6-46-4
Alcaraz C.[2]
Medjedovic H.
6-46-4
Shelton B.[5]
Bautista Agut R.
7-636-3
R64
Fonseca J.
Davidovich Fokina A.[17]
6-745-4
Sinner J.[1]
Galan D.
6-16-1
Shelton B.[5]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-33-1
Comesana F.
Darderi L.[29]
6-43-1
Popyrin A.[21]
Landaluce M.
7-636-3
Atmane T.
Cobolli F.[15]
6-43-67-65
Rinderknech A.
Ruud C.[11]
6-756-46-2
Nakashima B.[27]
Blockx A.
4-66-37-65
Humbert U.[20]
Wong C.
6-36-4
Mensik J.[16]
Quinn E.
6-46-2
Lehecka J.[22]
Boyer T.
4-66-16-4
Rublev A.[9]
Tien L.
7-646-3
Michelsen A.[28]
Moutet C.
3-66-36-4
Mannarino A.
Machac T.[19]
6-36-3
Sonego L.[31]
Bergs Z.
6-37-64
Auger Aliassime F.[23]
Etcheverry T.
6-27-63
Diallo G.[30]
Baez S.
7-56-4
Bautista Agut R.
Norrie C.[32]
6-46-3
Bonzi B.
Musetti L.[8]
5-76-47-64
Paul T.[13]
Martinez P.
6-26-2
Walton A.
Medvedev D.[12]
6-706-46-1
Alcaraz C.[2]
Dzumhur D.
6-12-66-3
Tiafoe F.[10]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-3
Fritz T.[4]
Nava E.
6-46-4
Tsitsipas S.[25]
Marozsan F.
7-636-2
Medjedovic H.
Griekspoor T.[26]
6-47-63
Nardi L.
Shapovalov D.[24]
6-756-36-4
Brooksby J.
Cazaux A.
7-56-1
Opelka R.
De Minaur A.[6]
7-666-4
Khachanov K.[14]
Royer V.
6-47-66
Rune H.[7]
Safiullin R.
7-57-65
Zverev A.[3]
Basavareddy N.
6-36-3
R128
Dzumhur D.
Bellucci M.
7-677-65
Bautista Agut R.
Altmaier D.
7-657-61
Brooksby J.
Muller A.
7-625-76-1
Bergs Z.
Fearnley J.
6-16-4
Fonseca J.
Yunchaokete B.
4-66-27-5
Rinderknech A.
Borges N.
6-36-3
Medjedovic H.
Kovacevic A.
6-26-3
Carballes Baena R.
Gaston H.
6-45-76-3
Mannarino A.
Thompson J.
6-26-2
Blockx A.
Giron M.
6-23-66-3
Ugo Carabelli C.
Nishikori K.
7-56-3
Etcheverry T.
Shang J.
6-757-646-4
Safiullin R.
Tabilo A.
6-36-3
Moutet C.
Mcdonald M.
7-56-3
Landaluce M.
Kypson P.
3-66-36-2
Boyer T.
Holt B.
6-37-63
Comesana F.
Munar J.
6-46-4
Atmane T.
Nishioka Y.
6-26-2
Tien L.
Riedi L.
6-36-4
Walton A.
Navone M.
4-67-636-1
Bonzi B.
Arnaldi M.
6-716-36-4
Galan D.
Kopriva V.
6-26-4
Basavareddy N.
Vukic A.
7-657-5
Marozsan F.
Smith C.
6-14-66-4
Opelka R.
Dellien H.
7-57-63
Nava E.
Coric B.
6-37-5
Quinn E.
Kecmanovic M.
7-656-4
Martinez P.
Jarry N.
1-66-46-3
Baez S.
Goffin D.
6-16-3
Royer V.
Ofner S.
5-76-36-3
Nardi L.
Tirante T.
6-47-65
Wong C.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-36-2