Sebastian Baez vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Bastad Round of 16

Bastad · ATP · Round of 16
Sebastian Baez
ARG8
Sebastian Baez
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 14 July 2025
clay
NOR
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
#118ATP
1620ELO
1582Clay ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
Baez S.
3-6 6-2 7-5
Budkov Kjaer N.
Baez S.
3672
Budkov Kjaer N.
6251

Sebastian Baez defeated Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 3-6 6-2 7-5 in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #56.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Budkov Kjaer N.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Baez S.Budkov Kjaer N.
7
Serve
—
43
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Baez S.Budkov Kjaer N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (79 vs 103). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Baez S.Budkov Kjaer N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
87
67
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
78
Break points won·Dominant
86
39
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Even
83
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Baez S.
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Budkov Kjaer N.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.8+135 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1582
5.7Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1620
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.1
Surface form
4.0
0.0Lost last 7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.3
Minutes 14d
5.8
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Baez S.Budkov Kjaer N.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Baez S.: 15 days rest · Budkov Kjaer N.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°CDrizzle
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 69%
Final
Darderi L.[2]
De Jong J.
6-43-66-3
Semi-finals
Darderi L.[2]
Cerundolo F.[1]
6-23-67-63
De Jong J.
Ugo Carabelli C.[5]
6-37-63
Quarter-finals
Darderi L.[2]
Baez S.[8]
6-06-2
De Jong J.
Griekspoor T.[2]
4-67-636-3
Cerundolo F.[1]
Dzumhur D.[7]
6-03-66-3
Ugo Carabelli C.[5]
Misolic F.
6-37-5
R16
Cerundolo F.[1]
Navone M.[4]
6-36-3
Darderi L.[2]
Ymer E.
6-26-2
Misolic F.
Borges N.[5]
3-67-616-3
Griekspoor T.[2]
Pellegrino A.
4-67-666-3
De Jong J.
Kopriva V.[8]
7-637-5
Dzumhur D.[7]
Gaston H.
4-66-26-2
Ugo Carabelli C.[5]
Van De Zandschulp B.[6]
7-635-76-3
Baez S.[8]
Budkov Kjaer N.
3-66-27-5
R32
Darderi L.[2]
Collignon R.
6-22-66-2
Misolic F.
Moller E.[1]
6-33-67-5
Navone M.[4]
Barrios Vera T.
7-57-5
Kopriva V.[8]
Dellien H.
6-13-0
Gaston H.
Tseng C.
6-46-3
Dzumhur D.[7]
Ofner S.
6-46-4
Budkov Kjaer N.
Monteiro T.
5-76-37-62
Van De Zandschulp B.[6]
Ymer M.
6-46-1
De Jong J.
Rejchtman Vinciguerra W.
6-36-2
Ymer E.
Boyer T.
6-33-66-2
Pellegrino A.
Faria J.
2-66-36-3
Ugo Carabelli C.[5]
Garin C.
6-46-4