Carol Zhao vs Elvina KalievaNewport 125 Round of 16

Newport 125 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#432WTA
1390ELO
1380Grass ELO
31 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 7 July 2025
grass
#136WTA
1569ELO
1419Grass ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWLLW
Zhao C.
6-7 6-3 6-3
Kalieva E.
Zhao C.
65662
Kalieva E.
77331

Carol Zhao defeated Elvina Kalieva 6-7 6-3 6-3 in the Newport 125 round of 16 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Elvina Kalieva came in ranked #136.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Zhao C.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Kalieva E.

Kalieva E.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Zhao C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
46%
Service points won·Even
54%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.3
3.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.8
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 88). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
10
18
Break points saved·Slight edge
19
28
Break points won·Clear edge
63
87
Deciding sets·Even
40
37
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
30
15

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1380
Surface ELO
5.4+39 Grass Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1390
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1569
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.8
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
100

Zhao C.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Kalieva E.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast