Reilly Opelka vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Queen's Club Round of 32

Queen's Club · ATP · Round of 32
Reilly Opelka
USA
Reilly Opelka
#115ATP
1749ELO
1635Grass ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#59ATP
1759ELO
1496Grass ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Opelka R.
7-6 6-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Opelka R.
7862
Ugo Carabelli C.
6640

Reilly Opelka defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 7-6 6-4 in the Queen's Club round of 32 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #59.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Opelka R.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
28%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
74%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
16.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (67 vs 87). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Opelka R.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
63
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
100
90
Break points won·Dominant
1
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
93
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Opelka R.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Ugo Carabelli C.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.9+138 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Grass Elo 1496
5.1Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.9
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.3
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Opelka R.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·
—
97

Ugo Carabelli C.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 43%
Final
Alcaraz C.[1]
Lehecka J.
7-56-756-2
Semi-finals
Alcaraz C.[1]
Bautista Agut R.
6-46-4
Lehecka J.
Draper J.[2]
6-44-67-5
Quarter-finals
Lehecka J.
Fearnley J.
7-56-2
Draper J.[2]
Nakashima B.
6-45-76-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Rinderknech A.
7-56-4
Bautista Agut R.
Rune H.[4]
7-656-746-2
R16
Fearnley J.
Moutet C.
6-32-66-2
Lehecka J.
Diallo G.
6-46-2
Rinderknech A.
Opelka R.
7-57-63
Nakashima B.
Evans D.
7-57-64
Rune H.[4]
Mcdonald M.
2-66-16-1
Alcaraz C.[1]
Munar J.
6-46-777-5
Draper J.[2]
Popyrin A.
3-66-27-65
Bautista Agut R.
Mensik J.[8]
3-66-37-5
R32
Munar J.
Thompson J.
7-50-0
Moutet C.
Fritz T.[3]
6-757-677-5
Rinderknech A.
Shelton B.[6]
7-657-64
Mensik J.[8]
Norrie C.
7-661-66-1
Mcdonald M.
Monfils G.
6-46-4
Rune H.[4]
Oconnell C.
6-36-4
Draper J.[2]
Brooksby J.
6-36-1
Opelka R.
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-666-4
Bautista Agut R.
Borges N.
6-767-56-4
Popyrin A.
Vukic A.
6-26-797-63
Fearnley J.
Bolt A.
6-26-4
Nakashima B.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-7107-656-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Walton A.
6-47-64
Evans D.
Tiafoe F.[7]
7-56-2
Lehecka J.
De Minaur A.[5]
6-46-2
Diallo G.
Harris B.
6-13-66-4