Justin Engel vs Alex Michelsen — Stuttgart Round of 16

Stuttgart · ATP · Round of 16
GERWC
Justin Engel
#279ATP
1411ELO
1435Grass ELO
$76kYTD
$528kCAREER
18 yrs · 185 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 June 2025
grass
Alex Michelsen
USA7
Alex Michelsen
#46ATP
1825ELO
1710Grass ELO
$785kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
Engel J.
6-4 6-4
Michelsen A.
Engel J.
662
Michelsen A.
440

Justin Engel defeated Alex Michelsen 6-4 6-4 in the Stuttgart round of 16 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Alex Michelsen came in ranked #46, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

  • Match story: Justin Engel edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Engel J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Michelsen A.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Engel J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Engel J.Michelsen A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.0
5.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (78 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Engel J.Michelsen A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
38
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
98
Break points won·Dominant
10
46
Deciding sets·Dominant
48
91
Tiebreaks·Dominant
53
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Engel J.
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Michelsen A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
1.8Grass Elo 1435
Surface ELO
8.2+275 Grass Elo edge
0.3Overall Elo 1411
ELO gap
9.7Overall Elo 1825
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
Surface form
6.4
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Engel J.Michelsen A.
Freshness·
—
67

Michelsen A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Final
Fritz T.[2]
Zverev A.[1]
6-37-60
Semi-finals
Zverev A.[1]
Shelton B.[1]
7-687-61
Fritz T.[2]
Auger Aliassime F.[4]
6-47-65
Quarter-finals
Fritz T.[2]
Fucsovics M.
6-36-4
Shelton B.[1]
Lehecka J.[4]
6-46-4
Auger Aliassime F.[4]
Engel J.
7-636-3
Zverev A.[1]
Nakashima B.[6]
7-56-4
R16
Fritz T.[2]
Halys Q.
6-37-66
Nakashima B.[6]
Tien L.
7-656-3
Engel J.
Michelsen A.[7]
6-46-4
Zverev A.[1]
Moutet C.[8]
6-27-67
Lehecka J.[4]
Struff J.
6-47-5
Fucsovics M.
Rinderknech A.
7-646-3
Auger Aliassime F.[4]
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-46-4
Shelton B.[1]
Herbert P.
7-647-5
R32
Herbert P.
Dzumhur D.
6-43-0
Tien L.
Nishioka Y.
6-737-630-0
Fucsovics M.
Hanfmann Y.
7-56-4
Moutet C.[8]
Fognini F.
6-46-736-3
Nakashima B.[6]
Fearnley J.
4-67-646-1
Halys Q.
Sonego L.
6-767-56-4
Engel J.
Duckworth J.
4-66-47-65
Michelsen A.[7]
Monfils G.
6-44-66-3
Lehecka J.[4]
Bonzi B.
6-46-4
Struff J.
Arnaldi M.
6-46-4
Rinderknech A.
Shapovalov D.[5]
6-42-66-0
Mpetshi Perricard G.
Safiullin R.
7-6103-67-5