Gauthier Onclin vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Lyon CH Quarter-final

Lyon CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Gauthier Onclin
BEL
Gauthier Onclin
#169ATP
1567ELO
1496Clay ELO
$99kYTD
$616kCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 June 2025
clay
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP1
Pablo Carreno Busta
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Onclin G.
6-4 6-2
Carreno Busta P.
Onclin G.
662
Carreno Busta P.
420

Gauthier Onclin defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4 6-2 in the Lyon CH quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Onclin G.serving61% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Onclin G.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Onclin G.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
63%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
57%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.7
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (68 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Onclin G.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
46
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
97
Break points won·Dominant
17
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
74
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
50
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Onclin G.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Clay Elo 1496
Surface ELO
7.5+270 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1567
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1801
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
3.6
Surface form
3.1
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.6
Minutes 14d
8.9
7.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Onclin G.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Clear edge
77
92

Onclin G.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Final
Trungelliti M.[8]
Merida Aguilar D.
6-34-66-3
Struff J.[6]
Broady L.
6-46-4
Semi-finals
Merida Aguilar D.
Onclin G.
6-36-1
Trungelliti M.[8]
Tabur C.
6-17-5
Broady L.
Paris T.
7-656-4
Struff J.[6]
Added D.
1-67-656-2
Quarter-finals
Onclin G.
Carreno Busta P.[1]
6-46-2
Trungelliti M.[8]
Kuzmanov D.
3-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Hsu Y.
6-47-63
Merida Aguilar D.
Van Assche L.
6-46-3
Broady L.
Dodig M.
6-32-66-4
Struff J.[6]
Kopriva V.[2]
6-16-2
Added D.
Jacquet K.
7-644-66-4
Paris T.
Kukushkin M.
6-36-2
R16
Hsu Y.
Vallejo A.
6-46-1
Onclin G.
Poullain L.
7-57-64
Tabur C.
Gea A.
3-66-46-0
Kuzmanov D.
Cazaux A.[3]
7-56-1
Merida Aguilar D.
Squire H.
3-66-16-4
Van Assche L.
Blancaneaux G.
6-47-5
Carreno Busta P.[1]
Barranco Cosano J.
6-16-3
Trungelliti M.[8]
Gakhov I.
2-66-46-3
Paris T.
Djere L.[1]
7-657-63
Kukushkin M.
Van Assche L.
6-27-65
Broady L.
Hanfmann Y.[7]
7-656-4
Jacquet K.
Durasovic V.
6-26-4
Struff J.[6]
Lajal M.
6-46-2
Kopriva V.[2]
Maestrelli F.
6-36-3
Added D.
Berkieta T.
6-46-1
Dodig M.
Fery A.
7-56-3
R32
Onclin G.
Ficovich J.[5]
7-56-3
Van Assche L.
Vrbensky M.
1-66-16-4
Kuzmanov D.
Paris T.
7-57-65
Cazaux A.[3]
Janvier M.
6-36-3
Gea A.
Geerts M.
6-46-3
Trungelliti M.[8]
Moro Canas A.
6-26-3
Merida Aguilar D.
Jacquet K.[4]
6-46-4
Vallejo A.
Martineau M.
7-57-5
Blancaneaux G.
Nagal S.[6]
6-47-64
Barranco Cosano J.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-42-2
Gakhov I.
Dellavedova M.
2-1
Hsu Y.
Moller E.[2]
6-26-3
Tabur C.
Hemery C.[7]
6-46-2
Carreno Busta P.[1]
Droguet T.
7-636-3
Squire H.
Alvarez Varona N.
6-37-5
Poullain L.
Legout T.
6-47-66
Added D.
Galarneau A.
6-47-63
Djere L.[1]
Blanchet U.
6-45-76-4
Paris T.
Hassan B.
6-36-4
Van Assche L.
Onclin G.
6-36-0
Dodig M.
Schoolkate T.[4]
7-53-66-4
Jacquet K.
Droguet T.
6-746-36-3
Lajal M.
Blancaneaux G.
3-66-16-2
Maestrelli F.
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
6-21-66-1
Fery A.
Pavlovic L.
6-17-5
Kukushkin M.
Harris B.[8]
7-627-5
Broady L.
Passaro F.
6-37-5
Hanfmann Y.[7]
Kumstat J.
6-16-3
Berkieta T.
Tirante T.[5]
6-26-1
Durasovic V.
Mochizuki S.[3]
6-44-66-3
Struff J.[6]
Zhukayev B.
6-757-616-4
Kopriva V.[2]
Gea A.
6-26-2