Denis Yevseyev vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Heilbronn CH Round of 32

Heilbronn CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Denis Yevseyev
KAZ
Denis Yevseyev
#445ATP
1375ELO
1341Clay ELO
33 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 June 2025
clay
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP2
Pablo Carreno Busta
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Yevseyev D.
7-5 7-5
Carreno Busta P.
Yevseyev D.
772
Carreno Busta P.
550

Denis Yevseyev defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 7-5 in the Heilbronn CH round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Yevseyev D.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Yevseyev D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Yevseyev D.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
67%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (94 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Yevseyev D.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
0
78
Break points saved·Dominant
15
97
Break points won·Dominant
21
61
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
27
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Yevseyev D.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.6Clay Elo 1341
Surface ELO
9.4+426 Clay Elo edge
0.6Overall Elo 1375
ELO gap
9.4Overall Elo 1801
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.3
Surface form
3.7
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.7
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Yevseyev D.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Dominant
68
94

Yevseyev D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Buse I.
Den Ouden G.
7-57-5
Semi-finals
Buse I.
Trungelliti M.
6-47-63
Den Ouden G.
Topo M.
7-56-3
Quarter-finals
Trungelliti M.
Pacheco Mendez R.
2-66-46-2
Buse I.
Passaro F.[6]
3-66-16-4
Topo M.
Mena F.
6-33-66-3
Den Ouden G.
Nava E.[5]
7-56-3
R16
Topo M.
Stricker D.
6-757-640-0
Den Ouden G.
Onclin G.
6-36-2
Passaro F.[6]
Durasovic V.
6-36-4
Buse I.
Yevseyev D.
6-06-3
Nava E.[5]
Dedura Palomero D.
6-46-4
Pacheco Mendez R.
Nagal S.[7]
7-56-726-0
Mena F.
Rincon D.
7-57-60
Trungelliti M.
Royer V.[4]
6-14-66-4
R32
Buse I.
Skatov T.
6-17-64
Durasovic V.
Houkes M.
6-26-4
Nava E.[5]
Sharipov M.
6-36-3
Royer V.[4]
Wiskandt M.
7-655-76-4
Rincon D.
Nardi L.[1]
6-33-66-3
Topo M.
Pellegrino A.[8]
6-36-0
Pacheco Mendez R.
Martin Tiffon P.
3-66-36-1
Den Ouden G.
Moller E.[3]
7-657-5
Trungelliti M.
Choinski J.
7-660-66-2
Stricker D.
Vatutin A.
6-37-5
Dedura Palomero D.
Squire H.
7-57-5
Nagal S.[7]
Gentzsch T.
6-16-4
Mena F.
Engel J.
6-36-3
Passaro F.[6]
Broska F.
6-747-626-1
Onclin G.
Maestrelli F.
3-66-47-66
Yevseyev D.
Carreno Busta P.[2]
7-57-5