Varvara Gracheva vs Hailey BaptisteParis 125 Round of 16

Paris 125 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#88WTA
1810ELO
1701Clay ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 May 2025
clay
#30WTA
1844ELO
1771Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$3.6MCAREER
24 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWL
Gracheva V.
2-6 6-4 6-3
Baptiste H.
Gracheva V.
2662
Baptiste H.
6431

Varvara Gracheva defeated Hailey Baptiste 2-6 6-4 6-3 in the Paris 125 round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Hailey Baptiste came in ranked #30, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Varvara Gracheva claimed a first win over Hailey Baptiste in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-25BeijingR128hardHailey Baptiste6-0 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Gracheva V.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Baptiste H.

Baptiste H.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Gracheva V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Gracheva V.Baptiste H.
Serve
82
Return
0

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Even
56%
59%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.6
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.9
4.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (70 vs 71). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
74
83
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
93
Break points won·Slight edge
87
79
Deciding sets·Even
90
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1701
Surface ELO
5.9+69 Clay Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1810
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1844
5.0
H2H
5.0
3.9
Surface form
6.2
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.8
Minutes 14d
5.7
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast