Alibek Kachmazov vs Adam WaltonGuangzhou CH Round of 16

Guangzhou CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#782ATP
1490ELO
1467Hard ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 28 April 2025
hard
#79ATP
1703ELO
1669Hard ELO
$499kYTD
$2.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
Kachmazov A.
4-6 7-6 6-2
Walton A.
Kachmazov A.
47762
Walton A.
66221

Alibek Kachmazov defeated Adam Walton 4-6 7-6 6-2 in the Guangzhou CH round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Adam Walton came in ranked #79, defending last year's final.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Kachmazov A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Walton A.

Walton A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Kachmazov A.

Serve advantage — Walton A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kachmazov A.Walton A.
Serve
35
Return
17

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
59%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.1
6.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 108). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
49
65
Break points saved·Clear edge
82
95
Break points won·Even
16
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
95
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
87
70

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1467
Surface ELO
7.1+202 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1490
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1703
10.0No prior meetings
H2H
0.0
6.3
Surface form
6.8
Fatigue & Travel
2.9
Minutes 14d
2.2
4.0
3-set count
4.0
4.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
54

Walton A.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 122 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast