Alex Michelsen vs Luca Nardi — Estoril CH Quarter-final

Estoril CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Alex Michelsen
USA2
Alex Michelsen
#46ATP
1825ELO
1694Clay ELO
$785kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 27 April 2025
clay
ITA
Luca Nardi
#160ATP
1585ELO
1537Clay ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWL
Michelsen A.
6-3 6-4
Nardi L.
Michelsen A.
662
Nardi L.
340

Alex Michelsen defeated Luca Nardi 6-3 6-4 in the Estoril CH quarter-final on clay. The result followed the form book — Alex Michelsen came in ranked #46.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Michelsen A.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Nardi L.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Michelsen A.Nardi L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.4
3.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (76 vs 81). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Michelsen A.Nardi L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
78
32
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
92
Break points won·Dominant
46
15
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
42
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
18

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Michelsen A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Nardi L.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+158 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Clay Elo 1537
7.5Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1585
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
4.9
Surface form
2.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.9
Minutes 14d
8.4
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Michelsen A.Nardi L.
Freshness·Clear edge
66
88

Michelsen A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 78 games (7d) · Nardi L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Final
Michelsen A.[2]
Pellegrino A.
6-46-4
Semi-finals
Pellegrino A.
Vukic A.
6-46-4
Michelsen A.[2]
Kecmanovic M.[5]
6-46-2
Quarter-finals
Pellegrino A.
Jarry N.[7]
7-605-76-1
Vukic A.
Zapata Miralles B.
6-16-1
Kecmanovic M.[5]
Borges N.[3]
6-06-756-4
Michelsen A.[2]
Nardi L.
6-36-4
R16
Zapata Miralles B.
De Jong J.
6-47-61
Kecmanovic M.[5]
Yevseyev D.
6-13-67-5
Borges N.[3]
Fucsovics M.
7-666-746-4
Jarry N.[7]
Elias G.
6-24-67-5
Vukic A.
Giron M.[4]
6-36-1
Michelsen A.[2]
Fonio G.
6-47-63
Nardi L.
Vatutin A.
6-36-2
Pellegrino A.
Auger Aliassime F.[1]
7-56-4
R32
Pellegrino A.
Lajovic D.
7-56-726-3
Elias G.
Tien L.
5-77-56-4
Jarry N.[7]
Rocha H.
6-7136-36-4
Vukic A.
Moreno De Alboran N.
6-32-66-0
Zapata Miralles B.
Faria J.
6-37-62
De Jong J.
Fonseca J.[8]
6-27-5
Kecmanovic M.[5]
Struff J.
6-17-5
Yevseyev D.
Coppejans K.
6-26-4
Fucsovics M.
Zeppieri G.
2-67-636-1
Vatutin A.
Martinez P.[6]
6-46-3
Nardi L.
Kovacevic A.
6-26-3
Fonio G.
Hanfmann Y.
6-36-4